Driving a change in business structure toward electrification, and achieving further growth
Forecast in the powertrain market
AISIN Group has formulated future growth strategies envisaging three different patterns based on BEV and FCEV total adoption rates of 10%, 20% and 30% in the year 2030. These market predictions are based on the assumption that vehicle manufacturers successfully clear the fuel economy and exhaust gas emission regulations established in various countries around the world. The following will introduce patterns based on the BEV adoption rates of 10% and 30%.
When the BEV and FCEV total adoption rate is 10% (pattern 1)
In this pattern, where the adoption rate of BEV and FCEV with good fuel economy and environmental friendliness is low, for vehicle manufacturers to clear the fuel economy and exhaust gas emission regulations, it is necessary to reduce sales of gasolinefueled vehicles, which are inexpensive but have low fuel efficiency, and increase sales of HEV instead. This means that the changeover from AT to hybrid transmissions will be in powertrains. However, it is presumed that a certain number of hybrid transmissions will be 1-motor hybrid transmissions based on AT.
Therefore, in this pattern, we forecast that a certain level of demand for AT-based transmissions will continue. In addition to existing AT, AISIN Group will launch 1-motor hybrid transmissions and 2-motor hybrid transmissions, aiming to expand our market share.
When the BEV and FCEV total adoption rate is 30% (pattern 3)
On the other hand, when BEV and FCEV are adopted for approximately 30%, vehicle manufacturers can pass the fuel economy and exhaust gas emission regulations. Therefore, there is no need to reduce sales of gasoline-fueled vehicles, whose prices are low, which means the adoption rate of AT will not decrease dramatically.
In this pattern, we also forecast that a certain level of demand for AT will continue. In addition to maintaining our market share in the existing AT market, AISIN Group will launch eAxle for the BEV and FCEV markets, aiming to expand our market share.
As described above, assuming that vehicle manufacturers will comply with the fuel economy and exhaust gas emission regulations, we forecast that a certain level of demand for ATs will continue, regardless of fluctuations in the BEV and FCEV adoption rate.
Sales target in the powertrain business
Based on the information above, we have developed the following sales plan by product in the powertrain business:
We forecast that the markets of gasoline-fueled vehicles and HEV that are based on AT will be maintained for the time being. Therefore, in addition to our anchor product, AT, we plan to launch 1-motor hybrid transmissions, which can effectively utilize the production facilities for AT, to continue to stably secure our sales volume from 2020.
Also, for the markets of HEV, PHEV, BEV and FCEV, we will launch 2-motor hybrid transmissions and eAxle at an early stage to adapt to market expansion.
In this way, AISIN Group will steadily drive a change in the business structure toward electrification by providing attractive product lineups for electrification and establish a solid position in the electric powertrain market.
Our revenue target for our powertrain business in fiscal 2021 is ¥2.5 trillion, and we will aim to achieve further increases in revenue as we head toward fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2031.